What Does The Congressional Reapportionment Mean For 2022 Midterms? Let’s Break It Down

Earlier this week, the U.S. Census Bureau announced its congressional reapportionment, based on the results of the 2020 Census. This will determine the number of congressional districts that each state has, until the next Census is conducted in 2030 and the following reapportionment in 2031. Each of the 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are allocated, based on population, among the 50 states. 

These congressional seats will be decided largely by state legislatures or statewide bipartisan redistricting commissions. The first election the new districts apply to is the 2022 midterms. Additionally, the number of congressional districts is tied into the total amount of Electoral College votes that each state has, which will come into play in the 2024 and 2028 presidential elections.

Here is the breakdown of gain and loss of seats:

• Texas gains 2 Congressional Districts

• North Carolina gains 1 Congressional District

• Colorado gains 1 Congressional District

• Oregon gains 1 Congressional District

• Montana gains 1 Congressional District

• Florida gains 1 Congressional District

States losing seats:

• California loses 1 Congressional District

• New York loses 1 Congressional District

• Illinois loses 1 Congressional District

• Michigan loses 1 Congressional District

• Ohio loses 1 Congressional District

• West Virginia loses 1 Congressional District

• Pennsylvania loses 1 Congressional District

Here are some other unique statistics about the reapportionment:

• “In the 1940s, New York held 45 seats in the House of Representatives, the same size as the combined delegations of California, Texas and Florida. In the next Congress, New York’s delegation will have 11 fewer members than Texas’s alone.” -per John Fund

• Interestingly, 5 of the 7 new congressional seats were awarded to traditionally “red” states. On the flipside, 5 of the 7 states that will lose representation voted for Biden.

• Per the U.S. Census Bureau’s Q&A session, if New York had only registered just 89 more people in the census, it would have retained the district that it lost.

• “Big surprises: No new seat for Arizona. No seat loss for Rhode Island. Texas only gains two, not three.” – per Reid Wilson

• Southern and Western states have been the biggest population gainers in the last few decades, while Pennsylvania, New York, Ohio, Michigan, and Illinois — Rust Belt states— are on a downturn

• “If the 2020 election had been held under these new counts, [President] Biden would have won with 303 [Electoral College Votes](instead of 306),” according to Dave Wasserman